SCOAR: Week 17 Rankings & Predictions

The Cardinals claim the top spot while the Seahawks drop to sixth.

The Seahawks suffered a disappointing loss last week, but SCOAR didn’t punish them too harshly. Their performance was only slightly negative, which is somewhat surprising for what seemed like a significant upset. The team now ranks 6th offensively and 4th defensively. They will close out the season facing the top ranked Cardinals. SCOAR predicts a loss, bringing Seattle to a final record of 9-6 and sending them to Green Bay as the sixth seed.

For those of you who still aren’t familiar with SCOAR…

SCOAR (SCaled Opponent-Adjusted point Ratio) is explained in detail here, but I’ll provide a quick recap. Opponent-adjusted point ratio is the ratio of a team’s points to the average points of that team’s opponents, normalized with a logarithm. This value is calculated for a team’s points for and points allowed then combined for a total rating. These results are then scaled using the average points scored across the league in order to give a result that corresponds directly to points.

Looking Back

Well it was nice while it lasted.. After a strong week in week 15, SCOAR struggled to predict the numerous upsets in week 16, managing only a 7-9 record straight up. The predictions against the spread suffered a similar fate, going 7-8-1. This brings the season totals to 151-89 (0.629) straight up and 113-104-23 (0.521) ATS.

Game Predicted Actual Game Predicted Actual
San Diego Chargers 21 20 Washington Redskins 23 38
Oakland Raiders 27 23 Philadelphia Eagles 24 24
New England Patriots 25 20 Houston Texans 20 34
New York Jets 21 26 Tennessee Titans 18 6
Cleveland Browns 12 13 Indianapolis Colts 21 18
Kansas City Chiefs 32 17 Miami Dolphins 24 12
Jacksonville Jaguars 30 27 San Francisco 49ers 15 17
New Orleans Saints 30 8 Detroit Lions 24 32
Dallas Cowboys 16 6 Chicago Bears 22 26
Buffalo Bills 25 16 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 25 21
Carolina Panthers 29 13 New York Giants 21 17
Atlanta Falcons 19 20 Minnesota Vikings 26 49
St. Louis Rams 11 23 Green Bay Packers 21 8
Seattle Seahawks 26 17 Arizona Cardinals 29 38
Pittsburgh Steelers 29 17 Cincinnati Bengals 21 17
Baltimore Ravens 20 20 Denver Broncos 18 20

Highs & Lows

  • Week 16 Best Single Game SCOAR – Arizona Cardinals: 46.24
  • Week 16 Worst Single Game SCOAR – Tennessee Titans: -42.13
  • Season Best Single Game SCOAR – Carolina Panthers: 91.11 (week 14)
  • Season Worst Single Game SCOAR – Atlanta Falcons: -81.31 (week 14)

On to the Numbers!

The top five is shaken up this week, starting at the top where the Cardinals (10.78) move into first after consecutive weeks with the top single game SCOAR. The Bengals remain in second with a rating of 9.46. Dropping from first to third this week are the Patriots, coming in at 9.25. After seeing their undefeated season spoiled, the Panthers (7.99) fall one spot into fourth. The lone newcomer to the top five is the fifth ranked Chiefs, with a rating of 7.77. The Seahawks fell just outside the top five this week, rating 7.70 and ranking sixth.

Team W L SOS O-SCOAR O Rank D-SCOAR D Rank SCOAR Last Week Change
1 Arizona Cardinals 13 2 -0.99 7.63 1 -3.15 8 10.78 4 3
2 Cincinnati Bengals 11 4 0.63 4.02 5 -5.44 1 9.46 2
3 New England Patriots 12 3 -0.83 6.19 2 -3.06 9 9.25 1 (2)
4 Carolina Panthers 14 1 -2.36 5.30 3 -2.70 11 7.99 3 (1)
5 Kansas City Chiefs 10 5 0.58 3.04 7 -4.73 3 7.77 6 1
6 Seattle Seahawks 9 6 -0.07 3.52 6 -4.18 4 7.70 5 (1)
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 9 6 1.44 4.41 4 -2.51 12 6.92 7
8 Denver Broncos 11 4 1.35 -0.55 20 -5.30 2 4.75 9 1
9 Green Bay Packers 10 5 0.71 1.64 9 -2.47 13 4.11 8 (1)
10 Minnesota Vikings 10 5 0.35 0.50 13 -3.59 5 4.09 11 1
11 New York Jets 10 5 -2.06 0.43 14 -3.24 6 3.68 10 (1)
12 Buffalo Bills 7 8 -0.11 0.89 10 -0.46 16 1.35 12
13 Houston Texans 8 7 -0.62 -2.81 26 -2.99 10 0.18 15 2
14 Washington Redskins 8 7 -1.11 -0.41 17 0.43 17 -0.85 14
15 New York Giants 6 9 -1.28 2.60 8 4.27 31 -1.67 13 (2)
16 St. Louis Rams 7 8 1.98 -4.86 29 -3.17 7 -1.69 20 4
17 Atlanta Falcons 8 7 -2.19 -2.74 24 -1.05 15 -1.69 21 4
18 Oakland Raiders 7 8 0.80 0.85 11 2.74 26 -1.90 16 (2)
19 Detroit Lions 6 9 1.27 0.32 15 2.44 23 -2.12 18 (1)
20 Chicago Bears 6 9 1.45 -0.46 19 2.01 21 -2.47 19 (1)
21 Jacksonville Jaguars 6 9 -2.12 0.71 12 3.36 29 -2.65 22 1
22 Philadelphia Eagles 6 9 -0.26 -0.41 18 2.56 25 -2.97 17 (5)
23 Baltimore Ravens 5 10 0.78 -1.39 21 2.44 24 -3.84 26 3
24 San Diego Chargers 4 11 1.02 -2.56 23 1.76 19 -4.32 23 (1)
25 Indianapolis Colts 7 8 0.06 -2.79 25 1.90 20 -4.68 28 3
26 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 6 9 -2.54 -2.38 22 2.95 28 -5.32 27 1
27 New Orleans Saints 5 10 -1.00 0.25 16 5.87 32 -5.62 24 (3)
28 Dallas Cowboys 4 11 0.30 -7.77 31 -1.76 14 -6.01 25 (3)
29 Miami Dolphins 5 10 -1.07 -4.45 28 2.40 22 -6.85 29
30 Cleveland Browns 3 12 1.79 -4.20 27 3.68 30 -7.88 31 1
31 Tennessee Titans 3 12 -1.11 -5.82 30 2.81 27 -8.63 30 (1)
32 San Francisco 49ers 4 11 2.68 -8.84 32 0.55 18 -9.39 32

Notable Rankings

  • Biggest Climb – Rams/Falcons, moving up 4 spots to #16/#17
  • Deepest Fall – Eagles, dropping 5 spots to #22
  • Highest Loser – Bills at #12
  • Lowest Winner – Falcons at #17
  • Most Neutral – Texans (#13) with a SCOAR of 0.18

Week 17 SCOAR predictions

I do not recommend using these for betting purposes (although you’re more than welcome to send me money if they help you).

A reminder that SCOAR doesn’t know what a normal football score looks like, so it’s bound to put up some very unlikely point totals.

New York Jets 22 New England Patriots 31
Buffalo Bills 22 Miami Dolphins 17
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17 New Orleans Saints 21
Carolina Panthers 34 Atlanta Falcons 29
Baltimore Ravens 14 Pittsburgh Steelers 29
Cincinnati Bengals 30 Cleveland Browns 17
Jacksonville Jaguars 20 Tennessee Titans 19
Houston Texans 25 Indianapolis Colts 25
Oakland Raiders 17 Washington Redskins 21
Kansas City Chiefs 30 Dallas Cowboys 18
Philadelphia Eagles 25 Detroit Lions 23
New York Giants 30 Chicago Bears 26
Minnesota Vikings 19 San Diego Chargers 14
Green Bay Packers 22 Denver Broncos 25
Seattle Seahawks 21 St. Louis Rams 18
Arizona Cardinals 28 San Francisco 49ers 13


Source: Field Gulls

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